SUSTAINABLE URBAN WATER SUPPLY: A SYSTEM DYNAMICS APPROACH

Abstract

Water scarcity is an escalating global concern, driven by rapid urbanization, industrial growth, population increase, and climate change. These pressures have led to significant depletion of groundwater resources, particularly in developing countries where approximately 80% of potable water is sourced from underground aquifers. In Pakistan, freshwater infrastructure is often developed in an ad hoc manner, responding to immediate service deficiencies such as low pressure, inadequate quantity, and poor quality at the consumer level. This reactive approach places unsustainable stress on groundwater reserves and results in inefficient financial resource allocation. Despite the urgency, Pakistan lacks a structured framework to guide the planning and development of freshwater supply systems. This study introduces a conceptual systems framework utilizing Causal Loop Diagrams (CLDs) to model the dynamic interdependencies among hydrological, infrastructural, socio-economic, and policy-related factors within urban water supply systems. The framework is intended to support strategic decision making and promote sustainable urban water management. Preliminary validation through expert consultation and scenario analysis highlights its potential to inform resilient infrastructure planning