CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS INFLUENCE ON THE INDUS RIVER SYSTEM: IMPLICATIONS FOR AGRICULTURAL SUSTAINABILITY IN PAKISTAN

Abstract

The Indus River system serves as the "lifeline" of agriculture for Pakistan, supplying irrigation to around 80 percent of the country's arable land and supporting the livelihood of millions of rural households. The Indus River and its tributaries and distributaries flow in a large network fed by snowmelt and glacial melt from the Himalayas. Because of climate change, this vast system is increasingly threatened by global temperatures rising, altered rainfall patterns, rapid glacier retreat, changing patterns of the monsoon season, and more. All of these climate shifts challenge the variability that farmers have become accustomed to working within and can increase the seasonal variability of river flows, leading to the increased possibility of flooding and drought cycles. Pakistan's food security and economic stability are threatened by climate change to the Indus River system as they are very reliant on predictable water supply from the Indus. Smallholder farmers make up the vast majority of the agricultural sector, and they are dependent on a reliable supply of water while facing variability of supply due to increased variability of supply, decreased crop yields, soil degradation, or potentially shifting growing seasons or cropping patterns. Even as climate change provides us with more evidence of risk, there are still some very large gaps in adaptive water governance, implementation of efficient irrigation, and farmer level climate resilience practices. This paper looks at climate change and the water dynamics of the Indus River, and how these changes impact the future sustainability of agriculture. The paper gives an overview of the complexities of climate change’s impact on agriculture via a mixed methods approach that combines data analysis of long term climate and river flow data, stakeholder interviews and local regional case studies from significant agricultural areas located in the Indus River basin. The analysis separates out regional trends of river flow, identifies vulnerabilities in agriculture, and examines the ability of farming communities to adapt to climate change induced water stresses.  The findings of this collaborative research generates information for policy makers, water management authorities, and development practitioners about the pressing need to adopt integrated climate adaptation approaches and efficiencies in irrigation and sustainable land and water management. Therefore, the research also contributes to the literature on addressing agriculture in a climate vulnerable context, with an objective of improving food security for the people of Pakistan and future generations.